Jungle Cruise enters this weekend as a firm favorite to take the box office crown, even though family films have been performing notably weaker in recent weeks and Disney has the film available for a premium via Disney+. Our model thinks it will do roughly twice the business of the number two film on the chart, and there’s a good chance it’ll do even better than that. With the other two new wide releases not expected to do huge amounts of business though, it’s likely to be a flat weekend for the market as a whole unless Disney’s latest theme-park-ride-turned-movie outperforms expectations.

Walt Disney’s release of Jungle Cruise breaks a pandemic-era record for widest release, arriving in 4,310 theaters this weekend. The number matches that of another Disney feature, Onward, which debuted just before theaters began shutting down back in March, 2020. The new film, which is based on the popular theme park attraction, follows Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt as Amazon riverboat captain Frank Wolff and Dr. Lily Houghton as they encounter innumerable dangers while they travel through the Amazon rain forest. Jungle Cruise will be available to stream simultaneously on the Disney+ platform.

Sci-fi action movie directed by Denis Villeneuve, starring Timothée Chalamet opens in theaters and on HBO Max on October 22… Full movie details Paul Atreides is a brilliant and gifted young man born into a great destiny beyond his understanding, who must travel to the most dangerous planet in the universe to ensure the future of his family and his people. As malevolent forces explode into conflict over the planet’s exclusive supply of the most precious resource in existence—a commodity capable of unlocking humanity’s greatest potential—only those who can conquer their fear will survive.

M. Night Shyamalan returns to the top of the box office charts this weekend, but he might be the only person celebrating as every opening and returning film in the top 10 looks set to underperform this weekend. Shyamalan’s new film, Old is coming closest to our model’s prediction with an opening of $16.5 million, which is 12% below what the model expected. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins will come second with $13.35 million, which is 15% behind expectations. Those results are both well within the model’s margin of error, but the collective performance of the market is troubling.

Our model has four films within five million dollars of one another this weekend as Space Jam: A New Legacy and Black Widow return to theaters, and Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins and Old appear for the first time. Black Widow and Old are in a statistical dead heat at the top, but any of the four films has a shot at winning the weekend.

Action movie starring Henry Golding opens today, Friday, July 23… Full movie details Snake Eyes is a tenacious loner who is welcomed into an ancient Japanese clan called the Arashikage after saving the life of their heir apparent. Upon arrival in Japan, the Arashikage teach Snake Eyes the ways of the ninja warrior while also providing something he’s been longing for: a home. But, when secrets from his past are revealed, Snake Eyes’ honor and allegiance will be tested—even if that means losing the trust of those closest to him.

Black Widow once again leads our theater count list this week despite taking a backseat at the box office to Space Jam: A New Legacy last weekend. The former enters its third week with a domestic total of over $140M and a worldwide total of $272M. The latest Marvel film drops from 4,275 to 4,250 locations beginning Friday. While we don’t have an official theater count for Space Jam: A New Legacy, we are estimating the sophomore feature to be in 4,000 theaters. The live action/animated hybrid sequel starring LeBron James and Bugs Bunny scored a better-than-expected $31M during its opening weekend, positioning itself as the number one movie of the week.

The release of Black Widow was a landmark moment for the movie business. The first theatrical release in Phase Four of the Marvel Cinematic Universe delivered the biggest opening weekend since December, 2019, but also ushered in a new business model for a tentpole release by generating $60 million in sales for the Disney+ streaming platform. There’s no way of hiding the fact that Disney has shown that a day-and-date release for a film like this makes sense for the studio, at least while theatrical box office earnings are still depressed due to the pandemic. What that means for the long-term future of the theatrical business is hard to predict. In the medium term though, recovery at the domestic box office looks like it will continue largely as expected. Our model’s prediction for the 2021 market stands at $5.8 billion today, which is down slightly from last month’s predicted $5.9 billion, but has remained fairly steady since our first market prediction back in April. Here’s what the model has to say today…