The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard looks like it should win the weekend fairly comfortably based on its opening day figures from Wednesday and the track record of action comedies that opened mid-week. Nothing is assured in the topsy-turvy world of 2021, but it would take a steep dive from the newcomer and an unexpectedly strong hold by A Quiet Place: Part II to see a different outcome. Here’s what our model has to say this morning…

In the Heights seems likely to be the widest release this weekend as A Quiet Place: Part II loses 123 theaters. We don’t have an official figure from Warner Bros., but the musical should at least keep its 3,456 locations from last time and probably add a few more. This session’s new wide release The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard opened on Wednesday in 3,331 theaters and will keep that count into the weekend. Based on its opening day, The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard is a strong favorite to win the weekend, but we’ll have a detailed set of predictions in the morning. For now, here are the official theater counts reported so far.

Documentary directed by Edgar Wright opens June 18… Full movie details

We won’t know for sure until final numbers are reported on Monday, but it looks as though A Quiet Place: Part II will move back to the top of the box office chart this weekend, fractionally edging out In the Heights. The difference in their respective Sunday-morning projections is just $245,000 though, with Quiet Place expected to earn $11.65 million and In the Heights $11.405 million, which is within the margin of error (particularly considering box office is harder to predict for the studios at the moment as market conditions are changing so much). In fact, Peter Rabbit 2 (projected to earn $10.4 million) and The Conjuring 3 (projected for $10.02 million) are technically still in the running for the win, although that would be a big surprise given they’re over a million dollars back on today’s tracking. However things shake out, there’s a good chance we’ll have four films earn over $10 million at the box office this weekend, which would be a new pandemic-era high if the numbers hold. The less good news is that In the Heights didn’t hit, well, the heights that were hoped for going into the weekend. It did come very close to what our model expected though.

It’s beginning to feel like Summer in movie theaters as a combination of a musical, two kids movies, a family movie, and two horror films will make up the top six and fill up movie theaters this weekend. After three films topped $10 million at the box office last weekend, we could see four films manage the feat this time around, and In the Heights is expected to top $20 million by the trackers (although, as I’ll discuss in a moment, our model isn’t as bullish). The new releases should be enough to keep the total market flat or possibly slightly growing.

Two wide releases arrive in theaters this weekend to challenge the horror films that have dominated the box office charts the past two weeks. After stellar openings for A Quiet Place: Part II two weeks ago, and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It last week, the films opening wide this week couldn't be more of a contrast. The long awaited Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway makes its entrance after a series of release date changes. The sequel from Sony Pictures will open in 3,346 theaters. The original Peter Rabbit earned just north of $347 million worldwide back in 2018. Getting a jump on the weekend is Warner Bros’, In The Heights as it opens today, Thursday. The musical, directed by John M. Chu and produced by Lin-Manuel Miranda, will open in an estimated 3,400 theaters while also being available to stream on HBO Max. Early reports have the film tracking around $20 million in its opening weekend.

Action comedy starring Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, and Salma Hayek opens in theaters on June 16. Full movie details… The world’s most lethal odd couple—bodyguard Michael Bryce and hitman Darius Kincaid—are back on another life-threatening mission. Still unlicensed and under scrutiny, Bryce is forced into action by Darius’s even more volatile wife, the infamous international con artist Sonia Kincaid. As Bryce is driven over the edge by his two most dangerous protectees, the trio get in over their heads in a global plot and soon find that they are all that stand between Europe and a vengeful and powerful madman. Joining in the fun and deadly mayhem is Morgan Freeman as… well, you’ll have to see.

Going into this weekend, it looked as though The Conjuring would have an uphill battle to top the weekend chart. The last film in the The Conjuring franchise, Annabelle Comes Home, opened with $20.3 million in the halcyon days of June, 2019, and it’s been five years since The Conjuring 2 made $40.4 million on opening weekend. With some theaters still closed in North America and a big chunk of the traditional theater-going audience yet to return, our model predicted it would earn somewhere in the region of $10 million to $15 million this weekend. Even with a steep decline, A Quiet Place: Part II was favored to retain its crown. The studios’ weekend projections, released this morning, tell a different story—one that’s very encouraging for box office watchers.